Friday, July 16, 2010

Stage 12 - Game, Set And Match

Alberto Contador showed why he is a deserved short priced favourite to take his third Tour de France title when he put time into all his opponents on the final climb of Stage 12, a 210km journey from Bourg-de-Peage to Mende. Joaquin Rodriguez was the only man that could match Contador and as a result took his first Tour stage win on debut at the race. Alexander Vinokourov was third on the day as Contador closed to within just over 30 seconds of the Yellow Jersey.

I may be going off slightly early here but last night's stage for me showed that Alberto Contador is an absolute certainty to win the 2010 Tour de France. After showing (slight) signs of weakness in the Alps, Contador put in his real first agressive attack of this years Tour on the final climb up to the aerodrome in Mende. And all importantly, Andy Schleck could not match him! In fact, apart from stage winner Joaquin Rodriguez (now 8th overall) no one could, and by the end of the short climb Contador had put at least 10 seconds into all his major GC rivals in finishing seconds. As a result, Andy Schleck's overall lead over Contador was reduced to just 31 seconds. That will not be enough for the young Luxumburger to hold off Contador in the final time trial, and on today's relative performances you would expect Contador will be looking to make up more time at some stage during the daunting four days in the Pyrenees. I predict he will take the yellow jersey somewhere in the Southern Mountains, and increase his lead in the final time trial to win his third title. Andy Schleck did have the benefit of increasing his lead in the Youth Classification by another five seconds after beating Robert Gesink to the line, and he now has a lead of around four and a half minutes in the White Jersey battle.

Contador and Rodriguez burst away from the peleton on the final climb to real in the remenants of the days break. With Contador looking to put time into all his rivals he virtually dragged Rodriquez to the line, allowing his fellow Spaniard to sprint past him for his first stage win in his first ever Tour. Third placed went to the only member of the day's breakaway to survive the final climb with a time advantage in tact. That was Kazakh blood doper Alexander Vinokourov who was just 4 seconds back in third.

Another member of the days breakaway was Norwegian national champion Thor Hushovd, who grabbed the lead in the extremely exciting Green Jersey competition from Alessandro Pettachi after finishing 2nd and 1st on the two intermediate sprints on the day's stage. With the final climb denting any hopes of a bunch sprint at the finish, Hushovd sat up from the break after the second intermediate sprint and returned to the peleton, happy in the knowledge he would wear the Green Jersey on Stage 13 with a 6 point lead over Pettachi. This battle is sure to go all the way down to the wire in Paris. In sadder news, US sprinter Tyler Farrar abandoned the Tour on the stage. He has suffered big time in this years event after an early crash and we did not get to see his true potential. He will be back bigger and better in future years.

The polka-dot jesrey also continued its yo-yo from one rider to another after Anthony Charteau got into the days break. Charteau won a couple of climbs and was second in another, earning enough points to retake the lead in the King of the Mountains classification from countryment Jerome Pineau. Charteau now leads the classification by 15 points, the biggest margin we have seen in these particular standings for a while.

Yellow Jersey - Andy Schleck
Green Jersey - Thor Hushovd
Polka Dot Jersey - Anthony Charteau
White Jersey - Andy Schleck

Tonight's Stage - Stage 13 is a less severe rolling stage over the south of France, over a distance of 195km from Rodez to Revel. With this the only real chance for a last bunch sprint before Paris it is hard to see any breakaways surviving, especially with the race for the Green Jersey so tight this year. If it gets down to a bunch sprint I am still going to tip Mark Cavendish despite the loss of his lead out man in Mark Renshaw. I reckon Cav will want to win here to prove a point, and no doubt he will be dedicating the win to Renshaw if he does.

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